All Publications

2 days ago

The Rhyme: AI's Biggest Fund Sells Everything & Its 1998 Echo

LTCM's bond spreads converged exactly as the models predicted — after the bailout, after the fire-sale prices, after the fund was gone. Citadel is now holding the AI infrastructure book. The question is whether Griffin's timeline is measured in quarters or years.

3 days ago

The Rhyme: Saudi Arabia Enters the Iran War & Its 1990 Echo

Hyperscaler contracts. HBM scarcity that fiber never had. Cash-funded capex instead of junk bonds. The differences are real. But in July 2000, AT&T and MCI WorldCom looked just as unbreakable as Microsoft and Meta do today.

4 days ago

The Rhyme: Warsh Holds Rates as Big Tech Bets the Farm & Its 2006 Echo

The rhyme grid in today's issue is almost uncomfortable to read — same split committee, same rhetoric of patience, with $725 billion in unproven AI capex sitting where the hidden mortgage leverage used to be.

5 days ago

The Rhyme: China Crowns a Chip Champion & Its 1983 Echo

A terminally ill founder, a room in Tokyo, and a four-hundred-million-dollar bet that nobody noticed — until it erased Japan's entire semiconductor industry.

6 days ago

The Rhyme: Big Tech's $725B AI Bet Faces Judgment & Its 2018 Echo

Alphabet's free cash flow just turned negative for the first time as a public company. Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon report this week on the same days the Fed decides. The last time this exact setup played out, it took until Christmas Eve to find the floor.

1 week ago

The Rhyme: Alphabet's $205B Bet Tanks the Stock & Its 2014 Echo

Amazon spent roughly $5 billion on capex in all of 2014. Alphabet plans $205 billion in 2026 alone — backed by $242 billion in cash, but racing two deeply entrenched rivals spending their own hundreds of billions.