All Publications

4 months ago

The Rhyme: Microsoft Cuts AI Capex in Half & Its 2002 Echo

Microsoft’s $62B AI capex cut may be the clearest dot-com echo yet. As Nvidia slides and hyperscalers pull back on data-center spending, the market is replaying a pattern last seen in 2002 when Cisco admitted the boom had overbuilt reality. The cycle has changed — now the question is who survives the unwind.

4 months ago

The Rhyme: Lockheed Halts the F-35 Line on Rare Earths & Its 2010 Echo

China already proved in 2010 that rare earths can stop an industrial superpower cold. This time it isn’t Toyota at risk — it’s the F-35. The parallels are uncomfortable. The differences matter even more.

4 months ago

The Rhyme: Real Wages Go Negative & Its 1966 Echo

Real wages just turned negative for the first time since 2023. The last time inflation, Fed division, and political pressure aligned like this was spring 1966 — right before a decade-long inflation spiral began. Why the market may be misreading the next Fed move.

4 months ago

The Rhyme: Warsh Confirmed, Powell Out, Records Hold & Its 2006 Echo

Warsh is set to take over the Fed as markets sit at record highs, echoing Bernanke’s 2006 transition. With a partisan confirmation, a $7T balance sheet, and inflation data due tomorrow, the question is whether today’s calm masks the same late-cycle risks that preceded 2008.

4 months ago

The Rhyme: Jobs Beat Buys Time & Its 2007 Echo

April’s +115K jobs print looks like resilience — unemployment steady, markets calm. But echoes of 2007 suggest payroll strength can lag turning points. While equities rise, small caps and credit spreads hint at underlying stress. Geneva trade talks add another layer of priced-in optimism vs. reality gap. What if the headline isn’t the signal?

4 months ago

The Rhyme: Two Regional Banks Fall on CRE & Its 1984 Echo

Two regional banks just failed under the weight of commercial real estate loans — and the pattern looks eerily familiar. From Continental Illinois in 1984 to Riverstone and Cascade today, the rhyme is the same: concentrated lending, fast deposit runs, and contagion spreading faster than regulators can react. The question now isn’t what failed last night. It’s who breaks next.

4 months ago

The Rhyme: Private Credit Giant Gates Investors & Its 2007 Echo

A $40B private credit fund just gated investors — and markets flinched. If that sounds familiar, it should. The last time a letter like this hit inboxes, it was June 2007... and the cracks didn’t stop there. What rhymes, what’s different, and what smart money is watching now.

4 months ago

The Rhyme: Tariffs Cross 60% on China & Its 1930 Echo

Tariffs jump to 60% — markets tumble, China retaliates within hours. A familiar pattern echoes 1930’s Smoot-Hawley shock that unraveled global trade. What’s repeating, what’s different, and which assets survive when borders harden — before the next open.

All Publications

The Rhyme: Microsoft Cuts AI Capex in Half & Its 2002 Echo

The Rhyme: Lockheed Halts the F-35 Line on Rare Earths & Its 2010 Echo

The Rhyme: Real Wages Go Negative & Its 1966 Echo

The Rhyme: Warsh Confirmed, Powell Out, Records Hold & Its 2006 Echo

The Rhyme: Jobs Beat Buys Time & Its 2007 Echo

The Rhyme: Two Regional Banks Fall on CRE & Its 1984 Echo

The Rhyme: Private Credit Giant Gates Investors & Its 2007 Echo

The Rhyme: Tariffs Cross 60% on China & Its 1930 Echo

Subscription