All Publications

1 month ago

The Rhyme: Bond Market Cracks at 5% & Its 2007 Echo

The last time the 10-year printed this number, a Bear Stearns hedge fund collapsed ten days later. The stock market rallied four more months — then lost 57%.

1 month ago

The Rhyme: Trump-Xi White House Deal Euphoria & Its 2020 Echo

Six years later, the White House fact sheet reads almost word for word — aircraft, soybeans, enforcement framework. The market is priced for the best version of this deal. It was last time, too.

1 month ago

The Rhyme: Oil Breaks Below $100 on Peace Hopes & Its 1991 Echo

Six sessions, 17% down. The last time a war premium unwound this fast, January 1991, the S&P ran 13% over the following eight weeks — and kept going.

1 month ago

The Rhyme: Trump Opens the Door to Iran Talks & Its 2013 Echo

Both times, oil was above $100 on a Middle East premium and an Iranian president stood at the UN podium. Both times, no deal existed yet — and the market was already moving.

1 month ago

The Rhyme: Tariff Truce Lifts Markets Before Xi Summit & Its 2018 Echo

Two and a half hours over dinner in Buenos Aires bought the S&P exactly one session of relief. Thursday's White House summit has a longer agenda and the same expiration problem.

1 month ago

The Rhyme: Three Central Banks Hike in One Week & Its 2006 Echo

The BOJ just joined the Fed and ECB in the first synchronized tightening since the summer before the financial crisis began its quiet countdown.

1 month ago

The Rhyme: The First Hike in Three Years & Its 1999 Echo

Both times markets absorbed move one without real damage. In 1999 the question was never the first hike — it was the five that came after. That is still the question.

1 month ago

The Rhyme: the Fed Hikes Into 5% Yields & Its 1994 Echo

Both hikes opened with the same 25 basis points, the same crowded carry trade, the same question: one-and-done or tightening cycle. In 1994 the damage wasn't the Fed's move — it was the leverage the move found.

All Publications

The Rhyme: Bond Market Cracks at 5% & Its 2007 Echo

The Rhyme: Trump-Xi White House Deal Euphoria & Its 2020 Echo

The Rhyme: Oil Breaks Below $100 on Peace Hopes & Its 1991 Echo

The Rhyme: Trump Opens the Door to Iran Talks & Its 2013 Echo

The Rhyme: Tariff Truce Lifts Markets Before Xi Summit & Its 2018 Echo

The Rhyme: Three Central Banks Hike in One Week & Its 2006 Echo

The Rhyme: The First Hike in Three Years & Its 1999 Echo

The Rhyme: the Fed Hikes Into 5% Yields & Its 1994 Echo

Subscription