All Publications

3 weeks ago

The Rhyme: Fed Minutes Land in a Changed World & Its 2018 Echo

A unanimous September hike, a 29,000-job report three weeks later, and minutes that read like a letter mailed from a country that no longer exists.

3 weeks ago

The Rhyme: Nasdaq Record on Collapsing Breadth & Its 1973 Echo

Fewer than one in four S&P 500 stocks can hold their own trend line while the Nasdaq prints a record. In January 1973, an almost identical split preceded a 48% decline over the next twenty-one months.

3 weeks ago

The Rhyme: Factory Input Costs Are Screaming & Its 2011 Echo

ISM Prices Paid just hit 77.9 — the same reading that preceded a near-seven-point PMI collapse exactly thirty days later in 2011. The ISM Services report lands at 10 a.m. this morning to tell you whether the signal has already spread.

1 month ago

The Rhyme: September Payrolls Meet Five-Percent Yields & Its 2006 Echo

The labor market is flashing yellow, yields are at a nineteen-year high, and the stock market is refusing to blink — the last time these three facts lived together, the real damage took fifteen months to arrive.

1 month ago

The Rhyme: Consumer Confidence Crashes & Its 2007 Echo

The S&P sits 2% from its record while the Expectations Index reads 63.6 — below the Conference Board's own recession warning line. The last time confidence was this low while the market looked this calm was the first week of October 2007.

1 month ago

The Rhyme: Core PCE Re-Accelerates Into 5% Yields & Its 2005 Echo

Greenspan held the same rate, faced the same oil shock, delivered the same confident vote. The catastrophe that followed took two years to arrive — and it never showed up in an inflation report first.

1 month ago

The Rhyme: Oil and Yields Crush Every Safe Haven & Its 2022 Echo

Stocks fell. Bonds fell. Gold dropped 3.2%. The only winners were crude oil and the dollar — a pairing last seen running for an entire autumn season four years ago.

1 month ago

The Rhyme: the AI Capex Boom Just Cracked & Its 2000 Echo

Oracle declared force majeure on a $165 billion data center. Twenty-six years earlier, a board in Murray Hill reached the same conclusion — with different letterhead and the same math.

All Publications

The Rhyme: Fed Minutes Land in a Changed World & Its 2018 Echo

The Rhyme: Nasdaq Record on Collapsing Breadth & Its 1973 Echo

The Rhyme: Factory Input Costs Are Screaming & Its 2011 Echo

The Rhyme: September Payrolls Meet Five-Percent Yields & Its 2006 Echo

The Rhyme: Consumer Confidence Crashes & Its 2007 Echo

The Rhyme: Core PCE Re-Accelerates Into 5% Yields & Its 2005 Echo

The Rhyme: Oil and Yields Crush Every Safe Haven & Its 2022 Echo

The Rhyme: the AI Capex Boom Just Cracked & Its 2000 Echo

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