All Publications

2 months ago

The Rhyme: CPI, Banks, and a New Fed Chair Collide & Its 2006 Echo

Markets always forgive a new Fed chair on day one. The 2006 pattern shows the testimony was never the event — it was what nobody wanted to discuss in the hearing room while the banks were gleaming and the subprime applications were quietly turning.

2 months ago

The Rhyme: Micron Bets $250B on AI & Its 2000 Echo

Hyperscaler contracts. HBM scarcity that fiber never had. Cash-funded capex instead of junk bonds. The differences are real. But in July 2000, AT&T and MCI WorldCom looked just as unbreakable as Microsoft and Meta do today.

2 months ago

The Rhyme: Trump Kills Iran Ceasefire, Oil Spikes 8% & Its 2018 Echo

In 2018, Trump walked away from a peacetime agreement — no shots fired, no tankers hit. In 2026, eighty Iranian targets have already been struck and three ships have been hit in the Strait of Hormuz. The rhyme holds; the risk floor does not.

2 months ago

The Rhyme: Fed Minutes Reveal a Divided House & Its 1994 Echo

Nine of eighteen officials are pointing toward a hike. In 1994, a single quarter-point move on a quiet Friday morning eventually erased more than a trillion dollars in bond value worldwide.

2 months ago

The Rhyme: Samsung's Record Profit Crowns Memory's Peak & Its 1995 Echo

Three days from now, SK Hynix lists on the Nasdaq in the largest foreign IPO in American history. The last time memory made Korea this rich this fast, the concrete was already drying on the fabs that ended it.

2 months ago

The Rhyme: Oil Crashes Back to Pre-War Levels & Its 1991 Echo

Brent is back to $72. In 1991, WTI fell 51% from its October high to its February low. Both crashes felt like resolution. Neither one undid what four months of elevated oil had already worked into the economy's bloodstream.

2 months ago

The Rhyme: Jobs Miss Cracks the Record Rally & Its 2007 Echo

The June jobs report shocked markets with just +57,000 jobs vs 110,000 expected, plus sharp downward revisions. While the Dow rose on hopes of Fed cuts, Nasdaq fell as tech weakness deepened. The note draws a striking parallel to August 2007, when a weak jobs print preceded the financial crisis. It compares today’s tariff- and chip-driven slowdown with hidden stress in 2007, and asks whether the current ‘soft landing’ narrative is masking broader labor-market deterioration ahead of key bank earnings.

2 months ago

The Rhyme: Warsh Says Inflation Too High & Its 1999 Echo

The clock started on June 30. Tomorrow we count the hours. If Greenspan's 1999 playbook holds, the market has roughly eight months before the peak and twenty before the economy rolls over — but the smart money never waited that long. Next issue: what the bond market did in the days after the first hike, why the pension funds rotated early, and the one signal that told them the countdown had truly begun.

All Publications

The Rhyme: CPI, Banks, and a New Fed Chair Collide & Its 2006 Echo

The Rhyme: Micron Bets $250B on AI & Its 2000 Echo

The Rhyme: Trump Kills Iran Ceasefire, Oil Spikes 8% & Its 2018 Echo

The Rhyme: Fed Minutes Reveal a Divided House & Its 1994 Echo

The Rhyme: Samsung's Record Profit Crowns Memory's Peak & Its 1995 Echo

The Rhyme: Oil Crashes Back to Pre-War Levels & Its 1991 Echo

The Rhyme: Jobs Miss Cracks the Record Rally & Its 2007 Echo

The Rhyme: Warsh Says Inflation Too High & Its 1999 Echo

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